大東亜戦争 日本は「勝利の方程式」を持っていた！（ハート出版）
茂木 弘道
その３ 第２章 「対米英蘭蒋戦争終末促進に関する腹案」
「勝利の方程式」とは、昭和16年1１月15日（真珠湾攻撃の3週間前）に、「大本営政府連絡会議」で採択された「対米英蘭蒋戦争終末促進に関する腹案」（以後「腹案」と略称）にほかなりません。そんな「戦略案」があったのか、それが一体どうして「勝利の方程式」などといえるのかということを明らかにしようというのが本書の目的です。
さらに言いますと、ではなぜそんな素晴らしい「戦略」を実行できなかったのか、ということを検討していきます。
今回は、この「腹案」の紹介と、なぜそれが戦略的に優れているのか、実行可能なものであるのか、を説明していきます。
「腹案」の戦略的な骨子は、「方針1」に述べられています。
「速やかに極東における米英蘭の根拠地を覆滅して自存自衛を確立するとともに、更に積極的措置により蒋政権の屈服を促進し、独伊と提携してまず英の屈服を図り、米の継戦意志を喪失せしむるに勉む」
対米はどう戦うのかというと、「方針」に次ぐ「要領１」のところで次のように書かれています。
「あらゆる手段を尽くして適時米海軍を誘致しこれを撃滅するに勉む」
実際に進行した対米戦とはまるで違っていることがお分かりいただけると思います。これが、いかに現実的で、効果的な「勝利」の戦略であるかを本章では説明していきます。
日本語原文： http://hassin.org/01/wp-content/uploads/Greater03.pdf
英訳文：http://www.sdh-fact.com/CL/Greater-East-Asian-War-No.3.pdf
令和元年９月５日 「史実を世界に発信する会」 茂木弘道
JAPAN’S MASTER PLAN FOR VICTORY:
WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN
By Moteki Hiromichi
Heart Publishers, Tokyo, 2018
Series No.3, Chapter 2: Draft Proposal for Hastening the End of War against The United States, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Chiang Kai-shek
“Japan’s Master Plan for Victory”, as I have mentioned previously, is nothing more than what I will call a “Draft Proposal for Hastening the End of War against The United States, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Chiang Kai-shek,” which was formally adopted at a joint Liaison Conference, of Imperial General Headquarters and the Imperial Government, held on November 15, 1941, just three weeks before the Pearl Harbor Attack.
Strangely enough, this grand design for war is not widely known. Even I became aware of this plan only 15 years ago and am greatly amazed with its content.
The purpose of this book is to show why the Draft Proposal can be said to be “Japan’s Master Plan for Victory”, not just as an abstraction but practically speaking. Furthermore, in the book, I’ll discuss why such a sound strategy was not at all executed as planned.
In this chapter, I’ll introduce the overall picture of the Draft Proposal, with explanations to the extent possible.
Readers will be surprise to know that core strategy was stated in Strategic Principle 1:
To ensure our nation’s survival and to exercise our right of self-defense, we shall expeditiously destroy American, British, and Dutch bases in the Far East. Additionally, we shall facilitate the overthrow of the Chiang government. We shall then act in cooperation with Germany and Italy to effect the capitulation of the United Kingdom, which will discourage the United States from continuing hostilities against Japan.
Readers may ask, “How will Japan strike the US?” Yes, I was caught up with such a question before I first read of this strategy. The answer is written in Tactics 1:
Using any and all means, we shall endeavor to lure the main strength of American naval vessels in a timely manner to an appropriate location, where we shall attack and destroy it.
Thus, Japan originally planned quite a different war from the one that we all know.
URL: http://www.sdh-fact.com/book-article/1397/
PDF: http://www.sdh-fact.com/CL/Greater-East-Asian-War-No.3.pdf
MOTEKI Hiromichi, Acting Chairman
for KASE Hideaki, Chairman
Society for the Dissemination of Historical Fact